Regarding Future U.S.-Pakistani Relations Post-bin Laden

As the joy of the demise of Osama bin Laden continues to be heard throughout the world, it is without a doubt a bittersweet victory in Pakistan for the administration of President Zardari and his Interior Minister Rehman Malik. Ironically, OBL joins the ranks of the AQ senior leaders who just so happened to find refuge within throwing distance of Pakistani military and intelligence bases (like KSM being captured in 2003 in Rawalpindi, host to Pakistan's army HQ). Now the real question finally gets asked of our "partner" in the war on terror how much they really knew about this compound.


Without a doubt, Pakistan walks away from this U.S. victory bathed in egg all over its face. The message it sends, especially after my favorite man in Pakistan - the always amusing Interior Minister Rehman Malik, adamantly denied for years that bin Laden could never be in his country and U.S. intelligence was flat out wrong. Perhaps this quote from Foreign Policy best represents the truth of the situation of this man's position and his ability to conduct his duties as Interior Minister.

"With great passion last year, Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik said, "I categorically deny the presence of Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, and even Mullah Omar in any part of Pakistan."
Now, with the capture of bin Laden in Pakistan -- only 40 miles from Malik's office - it's more difficult than ever to consider his statements, and those of his civil and military counterparts, credible. Since 9/11, Pakistan's leaders have been lying to the United States, neighboring countries, their own people, and even to one another about fundamental elements of the war on terror."

It looks like after this operation, Pakistan is either at best incompetent at gathering intelligence directly outside of its own capital (heaven help it with intel in the provinces), or just flat out complicit in refuging senior Qaida leadership. Whether the Taliban is included in that statement is unknown, but seeing as Pakistan created them, there is no reason why they would not be offered the same amenity.


Minister Malik has repeatedly denounced U.S. drone strikes inside Pakistan, vowing that the WoT is in Pakistan's best interest and that OBL was responsible for more Pakistani killings than Americans. This logic was repeatedly used to justify how come Pakistan had taken no action on OBL, essentially stating that if they knew where he was they most assuredly would go after him and wanted a stake at the AQ leader before the U.S.. Not so fast.


This quote, taken from the Long War Journal, clearly shows that at least one Pakistani official has gone on the record saying that it was aware of the compound, was monitoring it, and the kicker: "IT KNEW WHERE HE WAS."

"A Pakistani official's statements on the raid make it clear that Pakistan knew where bin Laden was, but did not act. In an interview with CNN, Wajid Hasan, Pakistan's high commissioner to the Untied Kingdom, actually said that Pakistan was "monitoring" bin Laden's location but the US beat Pakistan to the punch and launched the raid.
"We were monitoring him and the Americans were monitoring him," Hasan said. "But the Americans got to knowing where he was first and that is why they struck at him precisely."
Later in the interview, Hasan said that "Pakistan had been keeping certain areas monitored, and it knew where he was."


The fact that this compound was constructed relatively recently, the design included several obvious security features, and the low amount of individuals coming and going should have almost definitively raised an eyebrow for local forces inside the country. In all fairness, I would presume that OBL had this as one of several secure options spread throughout the country should he be required to travel, and that he did not take residence in this type of environment until possibly 2008-09. We may never know how long the world's most wanted terrorist resided here, but that he was able to infiltrate the urban cities of Pakistan clearly shows a huge lapse in Pakistan's defense in its most vital areas.


However, now that OBL is off the list, I would expect the Pakistani leadership to become increasingly hostile and defensive to any scrutiny regarding its military and ISI complacency with the jihadist figures. It is highly probable that President Zardari did not know anything about OBL's abode outside the capital, but someone most definitely did and it was probably ISI. The two branches, separated from the presidency, have always been first and foremost focused on having options available against India. The Taliban and bin Laden's mujahideen represented this opportunity before, and most assuredly to this day remain a viable option that Pakistan's military would like to hide in the closet until they must bring them out.


In summary, Pakistan will no longer see the U.S. War on Terror as a legitimate fight within its boundaries. Expect cooperation to stall as President Zardari's advisers push for the War on Terror inside Pakistan to occur only by Pakistani troops and assets without any U.S. drones being authorized. The U.S. complained long enough that it couldn't get across to where OBL was, but we finally did taking it directly to his doorstep. Pakistan did not care then, and now has to recover from the disgrace and scrutiny of the international community. Rehman Malik has a lot of explaining to do, he might want to actually start reading intelligence reports before making claims that the U.S. is going after ghosts inside his country. We found the biggest fish so far, who knows what else is lurking right outside his door.

India has been a sitting duck

After yesterday's attacks, many officials remain stunned as to how this breakthrough attack went virtually undetected until its implementation. The plotters of this attack had the significant benefit of India being in disarray when it comes to developing its internal security. Shortly after the July 26 blasts in Ahmedabad that killed 56 and injured over 200, India finally realized that its ability to counter terrorism was already ill-prepared. However, several suggestions by Indian government officials focused only on com batting the traditional remote-detonated devices used in most attacks this decade. The intent to take hostages and to actually use ground forces in such an assault has been one that seemed to have vanished from the scene in India.


Perhaps the greatest setback to Indian domestic security is that it has no nationwide intelligence network. With 28 states, each operating its own individual intelligence apparatus, the state is the ultimate head and is not required to share information with its neighbors. This was proved in the July attacks, when four of the cars used were stolen from Mumbai and then used in the attacks. The cars license plates were not completely altered, and would have found their way on a list by law-enforcement in a state here in the U.S.. However, in India such a network does not exist and the vehicles were able to pass multiple security checkpoints before their use in the blasts. In August, Gujarat province announced that it would create a special intelligence cell specifically to counter terrorism - yet it would only have an intelligence collecting purpose.


Furthermore, while India is quick to suggest Pakistani involvement in yesterday's attack, it acknowledged that it had seen substantial problems in its prison system. Cell phone SIM cards have frequently found their way into prisons that do not have a phone jamming system, allowing communication and other contacts from a supposed "secure" environment. Indian authorities had intercepted messages regarding terror plots being hatched from inside the country's prisons and were finally made aware of this vulnerability. The ability for domestic terrorism to thrive has extended well beyond Kashmir and into numerous systems in India, all of which has never been addressed or countered.


The country's intelligence collecting and sharing abilities are at best - deficient. It was only a matter of time until India felt the affects of an attack that may have been prevented, and yesterday was that point. The anti-terror squads have been tested by the most recent attack and it has proven that India has under equipped what is intended to be their elite services. This time, it will be necessary for the government there to not just talk about making changes and actually implements them in a rapid line. The components of the Mumbai assault leave a dangerous pattern among all countries concerned with international security, and all countries should evaluate the ability to coordinate and distribute emergency services across numerous areas and dealing with waves of militants. The patterns of this most recent attack have sent shock waves among the intelligence community, and it will be an incident that must be remembered for the lessons learned.

India's Mumbai terror attacks continue 24 hours later

The chaos in Mumbai continues nearly a day after the attacks began. With the head of the anti-terror squad killed along with several other senior commanders, the effectiveness of the ATS remains questionable as the army has taken responsibility of operations. As the casualty figures continue to remain sketchy, it will take time to clearly identify the situation as it appears the goal of spreading chaos throughout the city was achieved. It appears that the majority of the hostages have been released, yet reports of explosions at the Taj Hotel suggest that the situation remains tense.


The attack represents a new phase in the fight against terror, as the goal of essentially shutting down a city was achieved in the remarkably coordinated attacks. As the squads were able to hit at least 10 sites across Mumbai, the emergency services were clearly under equipped and ill-prepared for such massive attacks occurring simultaneously. It appears that these squads of gunmen are mostly in their 20s, suggesting a potential recruitment and alliance of the Indian youth mujahideens and larger groups. If yesterday's attacks were merely explosions, this incident would be no different from the Ahmedabad blasts in July in which 21 bombs were detonated across the city. However, the use of "foot soldiers" and the intent of hostage-taking is one that has not been seen in India for some time.


Ultimately, the investigation part of the phase has yet to begin as clues of the attackers are just now being discovered. With such a breakthrough attack the focus should be on outside elements support - specifically the ISI. As of now, the focus appears to be on SIMI and its offshoots. However, a report suggests that the perpetrators reached Mumbai using boats originally from Karachi. The intelligence trail for the preliminary setup for this operation could go as far back as six months ago, with the finding of a barge nearly four months ago. As police have reportedly found at least four boats laden with explosives outside the city, the investigation may have some fairly solid links to help establish the origin and trail of support that masterminded this operation.


The fight of what Walid Phares called "urban Jihad" has hit India and proven to the world that terror groups are capable of striking anywhere at any time. By all means, this attack is clearly a successful hit taking out various targets in nearly every major part of a hub. This type of tactic has yet to be seen in such a violent form, and many Western intelligence officials remain concerned that this could only be the beginning. Undoubtedly, information will be revealed in the coming days describing foreign terror connections once the situation is resolved. Until then, it is my hope that the anti-terror squads and Indian military are prepared to potentially deal with any further crises that could erupt.

Mumbai hit again by Indian terror in new wave of violence

Today India experienced a new chapter in its long history of terror attacks, with a series of coordinated attacks on multiple sites throughout the financial hub of Mumbai. Gunmen reportedly ambushed several famed hotels that are frequented by foreigners, taking hostages and lobbing grenades as well. Among the casualties of the attack are the head of Mumbai's "elite" anti-terror squad, as well as several other senior officers. Needless to say that several hours after the initial attack, the situation remains chaotic as casualty figures continue to climb and the fate of the hostages remains unknown.


Sadly, India continues to fall under violence due to jihadist groups thriving in Kashmir. With reported connections to Al-Qaida elements and support for them coming from Pakistan's ISI, these groups face little opposition and have the means to create massive amounts of damage. The perpetrators of today's attacks are yet to be confirmed, but it is reported that an unknown group calling itself Deccan Mujahideen has claimed responsibility. If this is true, it will be interesting to see how connections unravel and if there is a link to any pre-existing Kashmir militant groups.


Animesh Roul posted an article on the Jamestown Foundation's page on the revival of India's terror groups. Read it here:

"India's Troubled Northeast Region: The Resurgence of Ethno-Islamist Terrorism"

Pakistan's dilemma

Yesterday's bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, could not have come at a worse time for Pakistan. The Afghans were uncomfortably quick to point the finger at militants from across the Afghan-Pakistan border, even going so far as to accuse elements of Pakistani intelligence-the ISI. Considering just statements last week, PM Gilani may suffer the demise of a new hope at the expense of an old threat.

Just look at what an Indian general said just days before the blast. On July 3, Indian Army chief General Deepak Kapoor said that he believed that 48% of militants in Kashmir were foreigners. Couple that statement with his assessment that said Pakistan's biggest challenge is "moderating its radical sections" and it sends a pretty clear message that India is aware and concerned of Pakistan's terrorist elements. All of that was just four days before India would lose key figures to the blast that would kill 40.

India's public recognition of Pakistan's militant activity came around the same time as the first admission by a Pakistani official of terrorist training camps existing in the country. Benazir Bhutto's widow, Asif Ali Zardari, for the first time stated that there were training camps that may have been responsible for his wife's assassination. Nothing new, but the forum which he choose to make the comments might not assist the situation. His words were spoken at a summit entitled "India & Pakistan-Designing a Future." He chose to specify that terrorism inside Pakistan's borders posed a threat to a peaceful resolution between the two countries, which the summit was to advance. The summit that may have promoted a peaceful cooperation between the two nations only had a week and a half to help.

In summary, Pakistan may be dooming itself as a result of its peace talks with militants. The only people that are seeing a result (and a very weak one, at that) are the Pakistanis. Has the violence in Pakistan even decreased? Consider that the capital is on an almost weekly basis raised to "high alert." Remember that Islamabad was attacked on Sunday on the anniversary of the Red Mosque incident last year and Karachi was rocked by multiple explosions the very next day. The problem with the Gilani administration is that it's domestic policies have no impact on foreign policy issues. As Afghanistan threatened military troops into the tribal areas last month, Pakistan may want to assess India's possible responses if there is any ISI connection to yesterday's blast.

The threat to Indian targets is probably not over. As I wrote on my post on July 3 (see Pakistan a key ally in the War on Terror?, see reason #5), Al-Qaida's provoking of a Pakistan-India conflict would be a winning situation for the group. It would detract Pakistan's military forces (which were built up primarily for an Indian conflict), allowing the group to act inside the country with little to no resistance. Through this, Al-Qaida would be capable of dictating the domestic situation of Pakistan through attacks. In short, Al-Qaida might be taking the reins for Pakistan's lack of a foreign policy. It's up to PM Gilani, should he decide to cooperate with Musharraf rather than isolate him.