Pakistan's dilemma

Yesterday's bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, could not have come at a worse time for Pakistan. The Afghans were uncomfortably quick to point the finger at militants from across the Afghan-Pakistan border, even going so far as to accuse elements of Pakistani intelligence-the ISI. Considering just statements last week, PM Gilani may suffer the demise of a new hope at the expense of an old threat.

Just look at what an Indian general said just days before the blast. On July 3, Indian Army chief General Deepak Kapoor said that he believed that 48% of militants in Kashmir were foreigners. Couple that statement with his assessment that said Pakistan's biggest challenge is "moderating its radical sections" and it sends a pretty clear message that India is aware and concerned of Pakistan's terrorist elements. All of that was just four days before India would lose key figures to the blast that would kill 40.

India's public recognition of Pakistan's militant activity came around the same time as the first admission by a Pakistani official of terrorist training camps existing in the country. Benazir Bhutto's widow, Asif Ali Zardari, for the first time stated that there were training camps that may have been responsible for his wife's assassination. Nothing new, but the forum which he choose to make the comments might not assist the situation. His words were spoken at a summit entitled "India & Pakistan-Designing a Future." He chose to specify that terrorism inside Pakistan's borders posed a threat to a peaceful resolution between the two countries, which the summit was to advance. The summit that may have promoted a peaceful cooperation between the two nations only had a week and a half to help.

In summary, Pakistan may be dooming itself as a result of its peace talks with militants. The only people that are seeing a result (and a very weak one, at that) are the Pakistanis. Has the violence in Pakistan even decreased? Consider that the capital is on an almost weekly basis raised to "high alert." Remember that Islamabad was attacked on Sunday on the anniversary of the Red Mosque incident last year and Karachi was rocked by multiple explosions the very next day. The problem with the Gilani administration is that it's domestic policies have no impact on foreign policy issues. As Afghanistan threatened military troops into the tribal areas last month, Pakistan may want to assess India's possible responses if there is any ISI connection to yesterday's blast.

The threat to Indian targets is probably not over. As I wrote on my post on July 3 (see Pakistan a key ally in the War on Terror?, see reason #5), Al-Qaida's provoking of a Pakistan-India conflict would be a winning situation for the group. It would detract Pakistan's military forces (which were built up primarily for an Indian conflict), allowing the group to act inside the country with little to no resistance. Through this, Al-Qaida would be capable of dictating the domestic situation of Pakistan through attacks. In short, Al-Qaida might be taking the reins for Pakistan's lack of a foreign policy. It's up to PM Gilani, should he decide to cooperate with Musharraf rather than isolate him.