After yesterday's attacks, many officials remain stunned as to how this breakthrough attack went virtually undetected until its implementation. The plotters of this attack had the significant benefit of India being in disarray when it comes to developing its internal security. Shortly after the July 26 blasts in Ahmedabad that killed 56 and injured over 200, India finally realized that its ability to counter terrorism was already ill-prepared. However, several suggestions by Indian government officials focused only on com batting the traditional remote-detonated devices used in most attacks this decade. The intent to take hostages and to actually use ground forces in such an assault has been one that seemed to have vanished from the scene in India.
Perhaps the greatest setback to Indian domestic security is that it has no nationwide intelligence network. With 28 states, each operating its own individual intelligence apparatus, the state is the ultimate head and is not required to share information with its neighbors. This was proved in the July attacks, when four of the cars used were stolen from Mumbai and then used in the attacks. The cars license plates were not completely altered, and would have found their way on a list by law-enforcement in a state here in the U.S.. However, in India such a network does not exist and the vehicles were able to pass multiple security checkpoints before their use in the blasts. In August, Gujarat province announced that it would create a special intelligence cell specifically to counter terrorism - yet it would only have an intelligence collecting purpose.
Furthermore, while India is quick to suggest Pakistani involvement in yesterday's attack, it acknowledged that it had seen substantial problems in its prison system. Cell phone SIM cards have frequently found their way into prisons that do not have a phone jamming system, allowing communication and other contacts from a supposed "secure" environment. Indian authorities had intercepted messages regarding terror plots being hatched from inside the country's prisons and were finally made aware of this vulnerability. The ability for domestic terrorism to thrive has extended well beyond Kashmir and into numerous systems in India, all of which has never been addressed or countered.
The country's intelligence collecting and sharing abilities are at best - deficient. It was only a matter of time until India felt the affects of an attack that may have been prevented, and yesterday was that point. The anti-terror squads have been tested by the most recent attack and it has proven that India has under equipped what is intended to be their elite services. This time, it will be necessary for the government there to not just talk about making changes and actually implements them in a rapid line. The components of the Mumbai assault leave a dangerous pattern among all countries concerned with international security, and all countries should evaluate the ability to coordinate and distribute emergency services across numerous areas and dealing with waves of militants. The patterns of this most recent attack have sent shock waves among the intelligence community, and it will be an incident that must be remembered for the lessons learned.
9-11-01
Thursday, November 27, 2008
India's Mumbai terror attacks continue 24 hours later
The chaos in Mumbai continues nearly a day after the attacks began. With the head of the anti-terror squad killed along with several other senior commanders, the effectiveness of the ATS remains questionable as the army has taken responsibility of operations. As the casualty figures continue to remain sketchy, it will take time to clearly identify the situation as it appears the goal of spreading chaos throughout the city was achieved. It appears that the majority of the hostages have been released, yet reports of explosions at the Taj Hotel suggest that the situation remains tense.
The attack represents a new phase in the fight against terror, as the goal of essentially shutting down a city was achieved in the remarkably coordinated attacks. As the squads were able to hit at least 10 sites across Mumbai, the emergency services were clearly under equipped and ill-prepared for such massive attacks occurring simultaneously. It appears that these squads of gunmen are mostly in their 20s, suggesting a potential recruitment and alliance of the Indian youth mujahideens and larger groups. If yesterday's attacks were merely explosions, this incident would be no different from the Ahmedabad blasts in July in which 21 bombs were detonated across the city. However, the use of "foot soldiers" and the intent of hostage-taking is one that has not been seen in India for some time.
Ultimately, the investigation part of the phase has yet to begin as clues of the attackers are just now being discovered. With such a breakthrough attack the focus should be on outside elements support - specifically the ISI. As of now, the focus appears to be on SIMI and its offshoots. However, a report suggests that the perpetrators reached Mumbai using boats originally from Karachi. The intelligence trail for the preliminary setup for this operation could go as far back as six months ago, with the finding of a barge nearly four months ago. As police have reportedly found at least four boats laden with explosives outside the city, the investigation may have some fairly solid links to help establish the origin and trail of support that masterminded this operation.
The fight of what Walid Phares called "urban Jihad" has hit India and proven to the world that terror groups are capable of striking anywhere at any time. By all means, this attack is clearly a successful hit taking out various targets in nearly every major part of a hub. This type of tactic has yet to be seen in such a violent form, and many Western intelligence officials remain concerned that this could only be the beginning. Undoubtedly, information will be revealed in the coming days describing foreign terror connections once the situation is resolved. Until then, it is my hope that the anti-terror squads and Indian military are prepared to potentially deal with any further crises that could erupt.
The attack represents a new phase in the fight against terror, as the goal of essentially shutting down a city was achieved in the remarkably coordinated attacks. As the squads were able to hit at least 10 sites across Mumbai, the emergency services were clearly under equipped and ill-prepared for such massive attacks occurring simultaneously. It appears that these squads of gunmen are mostly in their 20s, suggesting a potential recruitment and alliance of the Indian youth mujahideens and larger groups. If yesterday's attacks were merely explosions, this incident would be no different from the Ahmedabad blasts in July in which 21 bombs were detonated across the city. However, the use of "foot soldiers" and the intent of hostage-taking is one that has not been seen in India for some time.
Ultimately, the investigation part of the phase has yet to begin as clues of the attackers are just now being discovered. With such a breakthrough attack the focus should be on outside elements support - specifically the ISI. As of now, the focus appears to be on SIMI and its offshoots. However, a report suggests that the perpetrators reached Mumbai using boats originally from Karachi. The intelligence trail for the preliminary setup for this operation could go as far back as six months ago, with the finding of a barge nearly four months ago. As police have reportedly found at least four boats laden with explosives outside the city, the investigation may have some fairly solid links to help establish the origin and trail of support that masterminded this operation.
The fight of what Walid Phares called "urban Jihad" has hit India and proven to the world that terror groups are capable of striking anywhere at any time. By all means, this attack is clearly a successful hit taking out various targets in nearly every major part of a hub. This type of tactic has yet to be seen in such a violent form, and many Western intelligence officials remain concerned that this could only be the beginning. Undoubtedly, information will be revealed in the coming days describing foreign terror connections once the situation is resolved. Until then, it is my hope that the anti-terror squads and Indian military are prepared to potentially deal with any further crises that could erupt.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Mumbai hit again by Indian terror in new wave of violence
Today India experienced a new chapter in its long history of terror attacks, with a series of coordinated attacks on multiple sites throughout the financial hub of Mumbai. Gunmen reportedly ambushed several famed hotels that are frequented by foreigners, taking hostages and lobbing grenades as well. Among the casualties of the attack are the head of Mumbai's "elite" anti-terror squad, as well as several other senior officers. Needless to say that several hours after the initial attack, the situation remains chaotic as casualty figures continue to climb and the fate of the hostages remains unknown.
Sadly, India continues to fall under violence due to jihadist groups thriving in Kashmir. With reported connections to Al-Qaida elements and support for them coming from Pakistan's ISI, these groups face little opposition and have the means to create massive amounts of damage. The perpetrators of today's attacks are yet to be confirmed, but it is reported that an unknown group calling itself Deccan Mujahideen has claimed responsibility. If this is true, it will be interesting to see how connections unravel and if there is a link to any pre-existing Kashmir militant groups.
Animesh Roul posted an article on the Jamestown Foundation's page on the revival of India's terror groups. Read it here:
"India's Troubled Northeast Region: The Resurgence of Ethno-Islamist Terrorism"
Sadly, India continues to fall under violence due to jihadist groups thriving in Kashmir. With reported connections to Al-Qaida elements and support for them coming from Pakistan's ISI, these groups face little opposition and have the means to create massive amounts of damage. The perpetrators of today's attacks are yet to be confirmed, but it is reported that an unknown group calling itself Deccan Mujahideen has claimed responsibility. If this is true, it will be interesting to see how connections unravel and if there is a link to any pre-existing Kashmir militant groups.
Animesh Roul posted an article on the Jamestown Foundation's page on the revival of India's terror groups. Read it here:
"India's Troubled Northeast Region: The Resurgence of Ethno-Islamist Terrorism"
Thursday, November 6, 2008
How we lost Afghanistan
Seven years after invading Afghanistan and overthrowing the Taliban regime, the situation in Afghanistan has taken a turn for the worst. The idea that the Taliban had vanished after their 2001 retreat from Kabul was quickly gone after this year's spectacular attacks. There was the April assassination attempt on Pres. Hamid Karzai, followed by the jailbreak of nearly 1000 prisoners from the Kandahar prison in June. Both attacks brought a component that was relatively unprecedented by the group - organization. The insurgency in Afghanistan had previously appeared to be a collection of cells with no connection and means to coordinate, capable only of occasional IED attacks and mortar rounds here and there. After those two attacks, joined by the Indian embassy bombing in July, it was clear that the rosy assessments painted by diplomats on the ground was merely a fantasy lived out in their secure compounds.
In reality, the Taliban do not have the ability to establish control as a legitimate government in Afghanistan. However, their fight has been one that is emerging as a strategic threat to the reconstruction and development in the country. By the June prison break, attacks were up 40% from last year and symbols of development were increasingly being targeted.
Shortly thereafter, reports emerged of the Taliban's "shadow" government systems that supposedly exist in nearly every province. With their own courts based on Shari'a, the Taliban had infiltrated local tribes and had become an alternative to a flawed Afghan justice system vulnerable to bribes.
What happened over the last seven years is of extreme importance to winning back Afghanistan. While the U.S. and NATO declared victory, the Taliban opted to be patient with their efforts and allow the opportunity to strengthen their capabilities. Without state sponsorship any more, they needed to find a means to fund their insurgency and partnered with the international opium market as a replacement. With Afghanistan consistently being the number one supplier of the product, it was an unregulated criminal enterprise that the U.S. and NATO seldom touched.
Either out of fear of turning the impoverished locals that grew the poppies nearer to the Taliban or intervention by Hamid Karzai's opium-profiting governors, over the seven years in Afghanistan nobody has addressed and confronted the issue of poppies. With anywhere between 88-93% of the global opium supply coming from Afghanistan, the Taliban had their moneymaker. During the Taliban's rule in the country, they allowed the farmers to grow poppies until they banned it in 2000. This ban did not curb the amount of opium pouring out of the country onto nearly every street.
Last week, TIME magazine held an interesting report that alleges the Taliban have officially entered the global crime syndicate. The UN's Office on Drugs and Crime announced that over the last three years, anywhere between 6,000 and 8,000 tons of opium have vanished from the global market. Consider that annually, the world consumes around 4,500 tons of the drug. Nearly two years worth of the drug, which retails for around $464,000 a ton, has just disappeared off the market.
The UN Office has not made any official assessments, but theories are circulating as to where such a large stash may have ended up. Officials are skeptical that this was a mere instance of the stockpile being lost in the black market and not appearing, basing their opinion on the global market. With opium being a fairly consistent $70 per kg, such a significant portion of the crop would have lowered prices. That simply hasn't happened.
The concern now is that the Taliban may have spent up to 3 years collecting the crop, and now have a bundle worth anywhere between $2.8 and 3 billion in their possession. Needless to say, with that kind of potential income, the Taliban's tactics and weaponry should continue to increase at the expense of the U.S. and President Karzai's blind eye to the crop. With market manipulation and the Taliban's control on the safety of opium exports, they hold the potential to spike the price and reach record profits all due to their patience. Unfortunately, there is little the coalition can do to prevent this besides stumbling across the stash which could already be on the streets of Europe and the U.S..
Simply put, the U.S., NATO, and Hamid Karzai all made a doomsday mistake by not controlling the poppy situation. We have opted to see the issue as a black and white one, rather than offering an alternative to the farmers. The London-based think tank Senlis Council has advised that the coalition and the Karzai government allow the growth of poppies, however instead of flooding the black market and paying for the bombs that kill our troops, have them sold to pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Then, the hope is that the money will collectively go to the tribes in the area and help pay for the rebuilding of the infrastructure.
It is my hope that President-elect Obama and his administration focus on this problem before the Taliban are able to control it even more. However, only once during the whole presidential campaign season did a candidate mention "opium" and "Afghanistan" collectively. With such a massive supply coming from Afghanistan, not every gram of opium has to end up in the hands of an addict in the UK. By promoting a legal alternative that is internationally acceptable, we can utilize international companies and agencies involvement to win the hearts and minds of the people. By allowing farmers to provide funding for local projects such as their schools and roads, it will be the people of Afghanistan making up the infrastructure and not just international aid. With that type of invested interest, the Taliban can hopefully be seen as the obstacle towards peace in the country and their monopoly on the Afghan poppies can end.
In reality, the Taliban do not have the ability to establish control as a legitimate government in Afghanistan. However, their fight has been one that is emerging as a strategic threat to the reconstruction and development in the country. By the June prison break, attacks were up 40% from last year and symbols of development were increasingly being targeted.
Shortly thereafter, reports emerged of the Taliban's "shadow" government systems that supposedly exist in nearly every province. With their own courts based on Shari'a, the Taliban had infiltrated local tribes and had become an alternative to a flawed Afghan justice system vulnerable to bribes.
What happened over the last seven years is of extreme importance to winning back Afghanistan. While the U.S. and NATO declared victory, the Taliban opted to be patient with their efforts and allow the opportunity to strengthen their capabilities. Without state sponsorship any more, they needed to find a means to fund their insurgency and partnered with the international opium market as a replacement. With Afghanistan consistently being the number one supplier of the product, it was an unregulated criminal enterprise that the U.S. and NATO seldom touched.
Either out of fear of turning the impoverished locals that grew the poppies nearer to the Taliban or intervention by Hamid Karzai's opium-profiting governors, over the seven years in Afghanistan nobody has addressed and confronted the issue of poppies. With anywhere between 88-93% of the global opium supply coming from Afghanistan, the Taliban had their moneymaker. During the Taliban's rule in the country, they allowed the farmers to grow poppies until they banned it in 2000. This ban did not curb the amount of opium pouring out of the country onto nearly every street.
Last week, TIME magazine held an interesting report that alleges the Taliban have officially entered the global crime syndicate. The UN's Office on Drugs and Crime announced that over the last three years, anywhere between 6,000 and 8,000 tons of opium have vanished from the global market. Consider that annually, the world consumes around 4,500 tons of the drug. Nearly two years worth of the drug, which retails for around $464,000 a ton, has just disappeared off the market.
The UN Office has not made any official assessments, but theories are circulating as to where such a large stash may have ended up. Officials are skeptical that this was a mere instance of the stockpile being lost in the black market and not appearing, basing their opinion on the global market. With opium being a fairly consistent $70 per kg, such a significant portion of the crop would have lowered prices. That simply hasn't happened.
The concern now is that the Taliban may have spent up to 3 years collecting the crop, and now have a bundle worth anywhere between $2.8 and 3 billion in their possession. Needless to say, with that kind of potential income, the Taliban's tactics and weaponry should continue to increase at the expense of the U.S. and President Karzai's blind eye to the crop. With market manipulation and the Taliban's control on the safety of opium exports, they hold the potential to spike the price and reach record profits all due to their patience. Unfortunately, there is little the coalition can do to prevent this besides stumbling across the stash which could already be on the streets of Europe and the U.S..
Simply put, the U.S., NATO, and Hamid Karzai all made a doomsday mistake by not controlling the poppy situation. We have opted to see the issue as a black and white one, rather than offering an alternative to the farmers. The London-based think tank Senlis Council has advised that the coalition and the Karzai government allow the growth of poppies, however instead of flooding the black market and paying for the bombs that kill our troops, have them sold to pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Then, the hope is that the money will collectively go to the tribes in the area and help pay for the rebuilding of the infrastructure.
It is my hope that President-elect Obama and his administration focus on this problem before the Taliban are able to control it even more. However, only once during the whole presidential campaign season did a candidate mention "opium" and "Afghanistan" collectively. With such a massive supply coming from Afghanistan, not every gram of opium has to end up in the hands of an addict in the UK. By promoting a legal alternative that is internationally acceptable, we can utilize international companies and agencies involvement to win the hearts and minds of the people. By allowing farmers to provide funding for local projects such as their schools and roads, it will be the people of Afghanistan making up the infrastructure and not just international aid. With that type of invested interest, the Taliban can hopefully be seen as the obstacle towards peace in the country and their monopoly on the Afghan poppies can end.
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