Osama bin Laden killed: The GWOT and its future

On the news of tonight's announcement that Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden was eliminated by a U.S. team outside Islamabad, Pakistan, a major accomplishment has been achieved in the global war on terror. This, as emphasized by the President, was a successful result that the hardworking men and women of the intelligence and military communities made possible, sacrificing their families to contribute to a lead that may or may not pan out. Tonight was the result of a successful lead that brought to justice a disillusioned, radical maniac who sought violence instead of peace. To the many individuals who brought this day about, this country most assuredly thanks you for your service and commitment.


However, at the heels of OBL's demise, this is a victory for justice. A killer has been brought to justice and hopefully the families of the victims of his numerous actions can know that their sons and daughters killer will not spend one more day as a free man eluding punishment for his actions.


There are many lessons to be learned from this operation, and in the interest of not rambling on too long, this will be a brief post that will stick to the key components.

-First, OBL's location being in a secured compound in Abbottabad, an extremely urban environment that would have presumably protected him from the numerous drone strikes that have reduced the ranks of his senior leaders and lieutenants and forced the U.S. to conduct an unprecedented ground operation like the one that is being reported. It is safe to assume that more than likely, OBL and his senior lieutenants are gone from the days where they reportedly were riding around the deserts on mopeds to avoid detection from drones and the satellites cavehopping, and found refuge in urban environments such as Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Karachi.

It is safe to assume that the news of OBL's death has shaken the security around remaining AQ leaders, but there will be no immediate movement outside of these areas as it is safe to say Pakistan will not allow ground operations to become routine by CIA or any U.S. assets inside its boundaries. Behind the public declarations by the U.S. and Pakistan that this was a cooperative partnership involved, let us not forget that just last month Pakistan was disputing U.S. drone strikes within its borders and fueling an intense diplomatic exchange after U.S. diplomat Raymond Davis was released for killing two Pakistani security agents.


-Secondly, the future of Al-Qaida. It is evident that OBL sought to leave a legacy within the ranks of AQ, but did not want to become the figure for the movement. His ambition to create a global struggle, or jihad, catapulted on 9/11 and since then his hands were washed clean of any blood. He had fulfilled his goal to put the U.S. at war with Islam and put Muslims enamored in Wahhabism as the resistance to Western society. OBL's lack of issuing statements, rather allowing AQ's spiritual head, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, to appear frequently on audio tapes and even marking the 9/11 attacks last year. It has been clear that the intention OBL sought for the group was to not be a movement built around a person, but a shared rejection of Western society and values.

-Finally, who will fill OBL's shoes, if anyone? While bin Laden has two sons who are viable contenders to their father's role, Hamza and Saad - who was reportedly killed in a 2009 Hellfire strike. All reports surrounding the incident never gave a location where the strike occurred, but intelligence officials were pretty clear from their statements that Saad was not the intended target of such action. Hamza has been a strong contender, despite being only 20 years old. He authored a 2008 poem that brought attention and I posted about, suggesting OBL was focusing on making Hamza the future for AQ. His poem included memorable lines such as:

"Accelerate the destruction of America, Britain, France and Denmark."

"Oh God, reward the fighters hitting the infidels and defectors. Oh God, guide the youth of the Islamic nation and let them assist with the fighters' plans.

"Grant victory to the Taliban over the gangs of infidels."

AQ has much to gain by placing such a young face in the feet of his father, allowing recruiting to significantly impact a demographic it already holds a significant figure in - Muslim men in their early 20's and late teens. By placing a young, radical Wahhabi like Hamza in a very public position, this can fill the void for new converts who are borderline radical and questioning how far they are willing to go. With Hamza's operational and front line experience on the battlefield, he represents the sacrifice AQ wants out of its followers - a passion to destroy the West.


With that analysis out of the way, let us all celebrate the closure and victory achieved tonight. Without a doubt, Osama bin Laden was at one time a big fish who became the face for jihad. He has assuredly changed many areas of life throughout our own and in Muslim society. The recruiting networks, partnerships, and financial ties that he created and birthed from Al-Qaida's beginnings will most assuredly outlast him, and it will always be America's fight first. However, because we took the fight to him he has seen his last. God bless America.

Bombs discovered on U.S. bound cargo planes - AQAP to blame?

With the discovery of several packages containing explosives on U.S. bound cargo planes, counterterror officials internationally are blaming Al-Qaida on the Arabian Peninsula for the attack. Yemeni officials said today that a woman was being held for mailing the packages, and that more arrests were planned. AQAP is determined to strike at the U.S., utilizing its ability to recruit and train Western youths, as seen in the attempted downing of a U.S.-bound passenger plane last Christmas.


Al-Qaida's ability to strike at targets within the U.S. is limited, and its offshoots such as AQAP and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), certainly are restricted in their abilities to execute large-scale terror attacks like 9/11. However, their strength is in the ability to use simple devices and innovative ideas to bypass loopholes, making strikes like the attempted bombing of Northwest 253 last year or this one relatively easy given the ability to find lax areas of airline security.


This week's development of targeting cargo carriers is someone that was simply waiting to happen, however the method of attack and the details suggest that this was a feeble attempt to impact the U.S. economy more than inflict casualties or impact the upcoming elections. The addressed targets of the packages suggests nothing more than to address a package destined for the U.S. carrying contents, specifically finding a traditional Al-Qaida target such as Jewish organizations.


The intended target of the attack lies in recent bin Laden recordings, where he has suggested that Muslims find methods to impact the dollar rather than claim lives. By impacting something like holiday business, the attempted attack most surely would have claimed significant casualties in the everyday trading if cargo carriers were not deemed capable of carrying the hundreds of millions of dollars in business done over the Christmas season. With tighter guidelines on cargo carriers and probably a greater level of screening on employees (specifically temporary workers for the holiday season) there is a great deal of risk allowed in the industry that makes it a vulnerable target for terrorists. This holiday season faces a great deal of threats with methods similar to Mumbai and the assault tactics that could impact shopping at malls nationwide, as well as the airlines that assist in the significant business volume over the holiday season. There is no doubt that law enforcement is taking this development seriously, but that can only go so far before impeding business.

Mumbai in London? Assessing AQ target selection

Al-Qaida is making its push to remain relevant, and news reports today suggest that the group was seeking to conduct an operation similar to the attacks in Mumbai in November 2008. The success of that operation, which killed 166 people and made the crowded city almost paralyzed in fear, clearly had an impact on Al-Qaida's leadership which is now battling a constant jihad for its own relevancy.


The 9/11 terror attacks were the most effective form of terrorism contrived by any group. The reality that our transportation system could be penetrated and literally hijacked against us as a missile shocked the entire world. However, the ability to conduct such a plot remains extremely difficult currently. Despite vulnerabilities remaining in the aviation industry, so much effort and time has been put into insuring that a hijacked plane will not occur or be used again in the same form.


However, the vulnerability of soft targets remains. Al-Qaida knows that it is not capable of another 9/11, placing casualties in the thousands is a difficult feat without CBRN weapons. However, the ability to conduct operations similar to those used in Madrid, London, Mumbai, and in Moscow since 9/11 remains a legitimate concern. In my opinion, the ability to produce any chemical or biological agents is a feat that is difficult now that U.S. airstrikes are conducted routinely in regions that house Al-Qaida experts.


This latest piece of news suggesting that the siege/assault tactics used in Mumbai would be utilized again should be of no surprise. For those two days, the news was controlled by the standoff that developed following the takeover by Lashkar-e-Taiba gunmen. Mumbai was shut down. The inadequacy and the outdated tactics of Indian anti-terror police contributed significantly to the success, but could such an operation be conducted in a Western metropolitan city like London.


Al-Qaida promoted Mohamad Ilyas Kashmiri, the mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, as its operations chief. With experience fighting in the mujahideen against the Soviets in Afghanistan as well as being a former member of Pakistan's military, serving in special operations, Kashmiri brings a unique perspective encouraging direct assault and engagement. In 2009, Kashmiri said that he believed that more Mumbais would emerge,

"..I am not a traditional jihadi cleric who is involved in sloganeering. As a military commander, I would say every target has a specific time and reasons, and the responses will be forthcoming accordingly."

My concern rests in the fact that soft target defense is extremely inadequate. Most people here in the U.S. do not recall Beslan, where 777 schoolchildren were taken hostage at a school. 300 people were killed, many of them children. Law enforcement here has never had to engage in such a situation, but if it were to happen are we ready? Kashmiri has made it clear he plans on bringing military expertise, separating himself from the ideological concerns of previous Al-Qaida leadership. He is a formidable foe, making Khalid Sheikh Mohammed seem amateur in his experience. It is without a doubt that Kashmiri will seek to find a vulnerability and utilize it to his gain. The question is where and when he will emerge and demonstrate his capabilities.