NSA Surveillance and the decline of the War on Terror

Without a doubt we are seeing the Global War on Terror decreasing overseas, and in many ways at home as well.  As President Obama attempted to calm the storm by calling for greater transparency and opening up aspects of surveillance techniques to public debate, many Americans still fear that we are living in an Orwellian novel of 1984.  The reality simply is that such a move would counter and defeat the premise of surveillance at its most basic level - that good surveillance should go unnoticed until it demands a response by the entity conducting it.  Basically, until there is actionable and operational intelligence, surveillance is a tool to aid in building  enough information to prosecute a case.  Much of the hyped up cases discussed by the media are framed by a bunch of "what ifs" that simply have no backing. 


The programs in question are not some randomly concocted fantasy by power-hungry tyrants in a cubicle.  Despite what liberals and conservatives think of our president, previous and present, the "big government" portrayals of both President Obama and his predecessor have no basis in this argument.  Neither one of them has been a federal agent, or an analyst, or may not even speak another language.  The men and women who fill these positions in our government have taken a sworn oath to protect and defend our country and Constitution.  With the exception of one, Edward Snowden, their work sits protected by a layer of oversight and personal accountability to protect all of the information that they collect and receive until such a case can be made to act on it. 


The NSA surveillance program is simply a means to an end.  That being said, no criminal case has ever been built off of such a technique.  This is similar to let's just say, license plate readers on local law enforcement vehicles or a polygraph.  These are tools that can trigger and help determine the path an officer takes in the merits of an investigation, but if taken to court with the data either one of those tools delivers, has absolutely no basis and will get laughed out of court.  A person can be driving a stolen vehicle, but if it's an old lady who bought it from a shady car dealer, she can't go to jail.  You can pass a polygraph but still be guilty of a crime in question.  Unless there is evidence for the crime in question though, there is no case. 


Government surveillance is in place for a reason.  It works.  There have been no known instances where anyone has complained that the government has collected too much information and gone on a dumbfounded witch-hunt.  Is that because the programs our so secretive?  Or is it because the government has properly separated actionable and useful intelligence amongst the millions of intercepts that are conducted annually?  In the coming weeks as we assess government's responsibility with personal information, it is my hope that the critics will have an open mind to understand how useful most, if not all the developed programs, have been in keeping the U.S. safe. 


Just a side note, our enemy is constantly developing strategies to bypass having communications filtered through by the in question programs.  Take into consideration that the Mumbai attacks that occurred in November 2008 were planned by individuals who corresponded through a single e-mail account and would not send e-mails, but rather save them as a draft.  Through one user name and one password, the cell was able to communicate and avoid triggering a red flag in a means of communication that may have been monitored.  One must wonder with the information Edward Snowden revealed, how many people may die in a future attack due to him revealing information.  Without a doubt, our enemies are presently, if not already revamping techniques to avoid detection. 

Iran's toughening stance and the Arab Spring conflict

With news forthcoming regarding a plot to murder Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. Adel Al-Jubeir, it is clear as is to be expected that the Iranians continue to be up to no good. Perhaps, this plot best summarizes the state of the Middle East post-Arab Spring revolutions - a region conflicted by the interests of Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Shia Iran. This power struggle by the two dominant powers of the region has taken form in various battles, mainly via subversive strategic episodes utilizing proxies. As the U.S. makes its case against the two Qods force linked operatives, it appears that Iran should indeed have a lot of explaining to do.

What is particularly significant in this case is the direct link between Manssor Arbabsiar and a DEA confidential informant (CI). Arbabsiar had been led to the CI because of his suspected narcotics trafficking contacts, which Gholam Shakuri advised utilizing because "people in that business are willing to undertake criminal activity in exchange for money." Douglas Farah and several others have written extensively on the risks of abandoning the War on Drugs faces when the various criminal enterprises collide with terrorist groups. Groups like Hezbollah and the Taliban have extensively utilized them as a method for fundraising and contract operations such as this one and keep their hands clean.

I believe the record speaks for itself, since 9/11 the U.S. has created and used an extensive network of CI's who have fortunately been helpful in providing information regarding plots both here and abroad. It is these individuals who help in making a case and disrupting plots like this.

However, there are a lot of questions that most assuredly are going through U.S. policymakers minds as well as within the Saudi circles. Iran's last linked attacks against a state were the bombings of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992, as well as a Jewish center in 1994 in the same city. Reports suggest that the recently disrupted plots indicated a renewed interest in striking the exact same city, which suggests a vast network by Qods force intermediaries in the Latin American region. Given the recent threats by Iran to deploy its navy along the U.S. Eastern seaboard, as well as this plot to for the first time conduct an operation against a U.S. ally on our soil, Iran is continuing to take an aggressive posturing that should be investigated.

The internal struggle in Iran is pressing for lame-duck President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Now a political outcast by Ayatollah Khomenei for defying him in the appointment of the country's intelligence minister, Ahmadinejad is a lightweight for the country's affairs. That should be the scary part, is the theocracy now controls everything down to foreign affairs. Take into consideration that this theocracy calls for the end times and the coming of the Mahdi which they are supposed to govern in order to bring this momentous occasion about. This is a very dangerous concoction of delusional, religious dictators who see themselves in direct conflict with the West and now appear to be fixing to take a much more outward approach in reforming the globe and their region.

The U.S. should stand strictly by Saudi Arabia in this instance, and given the direct action of war this plot would have created if it had been successful, the strict interest of the world should be securing Iran's unchecked nuclear program and arsenal. As facts emerge as to how high up the totem pole this plot reached within Iran's government (which undoubtedly it would not be surprising for it to reach the upper echelons inside Qods Force, IRGC, and the Supreme Council on Natl. Security), it is necessary to keep the leadership of the country within confines and urge the Arab Spring revolutions to rise again inside this country. Iran's leadership can not be trusted and needs to be closely monitored. Undoubtedly, this incident has the Israelis and the Saudis doing just that.

The chaos of bureaucracy: DHS and Congress' failure to understand the threats of today

With the killing of ICE Special Agent Jaime Zapata lingering in discussions on the Hill and south of the border, the United States is now put in a difficult place of refining its immigration policies at the border and its relationship with Mexico. Since President Obama took office, immigration has been shoved under the stacks of paper for matters like health care that his administration has chosen to pursue. Under his administration, the intelligence apparatus of this country have continuously been abandoned and brought to shame and the violence that many warn about migrating north from the small towns of Mexico remain as big a threat as ever.


The Department of Homeland Security has failed in its mission of protecting the homeland time and time again, with its abandonment of protecting our borders. Yet again, our country is forced to respond too little and too late to an embarrassing situation where a respected member of law enforcement has fallen victim to senseless violence. The War on Drugs is something that many say is a policy that is failed and not worth the time and effort poured into it according to many legislators, but this incident proves that while they sit in their secured offices around the Capitol, they know nothing about the violence occurring to the south. Our borders remain easily penetrable and have continuously proven porous for the likes of terrorist financiers from groups like Hezbollah to cross through. How long will it take before we see a weapon smuggled?


Iran's proxies such as Hezbollah hold a strong role in Latin America, utilizing the narco trade to finance their groups and transport weapons and materials supporting rebel groups in the region. Venezuela, an influential Iranian ally, has continuously been found guilty of using its Air Force and military commanders as fronts for FARC rebels to ship cocaine out and smuggle Hezbollah associates in. We know Hezbollah has operatives inside this country, mostly for fundraising practices, but how long will it be before one of these networks is responsible for the deaths of Americans? With tensions between Iran and Western allies abroad, the U.S. should be especially vigilant for a display of power and capability in this hemisphere by an Iranian proxy should tensions escalate further.


Coincidentally, in late January, Border Patrol agents found a unique copy of a legendary Iranian book called In Memory of Our Martyrs. The book, an original copy and one of few English versions printed, was found on a well-traveled immigration and drug route. Being that the book was in English and not in Farsi, it may very well be that the person carrying it may not be Iranian, however, it is a very unique find that should be taken seriously. Iran is in a war right now to flex its muscle and remain relevant to the global scene, and it is no coincidence that as the Mideast erupts, Tehran dispatches ships to the Suez canal as they wave farewell to one of the Ayatollah's strongest foes, Hosni Mubarak. As Qaddafi falls to a similar fate in Libya, Iran may very well look to display its capabilities in this hemisphere by striking in Latin America like it did in Argentina in 1994. With its established network in the West, the options for a faux superpower like Tehran suddenly expand to a variety of exposed targets.

Bombs discovered on U.S. bound cargo planes - AQAP to blame?

With the discovery of several packages containing explosives on U.S. bound cargo planes, counterterror officials internationally are blaming Al-Qaida on the Arabian Peninsula for the attack. Yemeni officials said today that a woman was being held for mailing the packages, and that more arrests were planned. AQAP is determined to strike at the U.S., utilizing its ability to recruit and train Western youths, as seen in the attempted downing of a U.S.-bound passenger plane last Christmas.


Al-Qaida's ability to strike at targets within the U.S. is limited, and its offshoots such as AQAP and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), certainly are restricted in their abilities to execute large-scale terror attacks like 9/11. However, their strength is in the ability to use simple devices and innovative ideas to bypass loopholes, making strikes like the attempted bombing of Northwest 253 last year or this one relatively easy given the ability to find lax areas of airline security.


This week's development of targeting cargo carriers is someone that was simply waiting to happen, however the method of attack and the details suggest that this was a feeble attempt to impact the U.S. economy more than inflict casualties or impact the upcoming elections. The addressed targets of the packages suggests nothing more than to address a package destined for the U.S. carrying contents, specifically finding a traditional Al-Qaida target such as Jewish organizations.


The intended target of the attack lies in recent bin Laden recordings, where he has suggested that Muslims find methods to impact the dollar rather than claim lives. By impacting something like holiday business, the attempted attack most surely would have claimed significant casualties in the everyday trading if cargo carriers were not deemed capable of carrying the hundreds of millions of dollars in business done over the Christmas season. With tighter guidelines on cargo carriers and probably a greater level of screening on employees (specifically temporary workers for the holiday season) there is a great deal of risk allowed in the industry that makes it a vulnerable target for terrorists. This holiday season faces a great deal of threats with methods similar to Mumbai and the assault tactics that could impact shopping at malls nationwide, as well as the airlines that assist in the significant business volume over the holiday season. There is no doubt that law enforcement is taking this development seriously, but that can only go so far before impeding business.

Mumbai in London? Assessing AQ target selection

Al-Qaida is making its push to remain relevant, and news reports today suggest that the group was seeking to conduct an operation similar to the attacks in Mumbai in November 2008. The success of that operation, which killed 166 people and made the crowded city almost paralyzed in fear, clearly had an impact on Al-Qaida's leadership which is now battling a constant jihad for its own relevancy.


The 9/11 terror attacks were the most effective form of terrorism contrived by any group. The reality that our transportation system could be penetrated and literally hijacked against us as a missile shocked the entire world. However, the ability to conduct such a plot remains extremely difficult currently. Despite vulnerabilities remaining in the aviation industry, so much effort and time has been put into insuring that a hijacked plane will not occur or be used again in the same form.


However, the vulnerability of soft targets remains. Al-Qaida knows that it is not capable of another 9/11, placing casualties in the thousands is a difficult feat without CBRN weapons. However, the ability to conduct operations similar to those used in Madrid, London, Mumbai, and in Moscow since 9/11 remains a legitimate concern. In my opinion, the ability to produce any chemical or biological agents is a feat that is difficult now that U.S. airstrikes are conducted routinely in regions that house Al-Qaida experts.


This latest piece of news suggesting that the siege/assault tactics used in Mumbai would be utilized again should be of no surprise. For those two days, the news was controlled by the standoff that developed following the takeover by Lashkar-e-Taiba gunmen. Mumbai was shut down. The inadequacy and the outdated tactics of Indian anti-terror police contributed significantly to the success, but could such an operation be conducted in a Western metropolitan city like London.


Al-Qaida promoted Mohamad Ilyas Kashmiri, the mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, as its operations chief. With experience fighting in the mujahideen against the Soviets in Afghanistan as well as being a former member of Pakistan's military, serving in special operations, Kashmiri brings a unique perspective encouraging direct assault and engagement. In 2009, Kashmiri said that he believed that more Mumbais would emerge,

"..I am not a traditional jihadi cleric who is involved in sloganeering. As a military commander, I would say every target has a specific time and reasons, and the responses will be forthcoming accordingly."

My concern rests in the fact that soft target defense is extremely inadequate. Most people here in the U.S. do not recall Beslan, where 777 schoolchildren were taken hostage at a school. 300 people were killed, many of them children. Law enforcement here has never had to engage in such a situation, but if it were to happen are we ready? Kashmiri has made it clear he plans on bringing military expertise, separating himself from the ideological concerns of previous Al-Qaida leadership. He is a formidable foe, making Khalid Sheikh Mohammed seem amateur in his experience. It is without a doubt that Kashmiri will seek to find a vulnerability and utilize it to his gain. The question is where and when he will emerge and demonstrate his capabilities.

9/11: Reviving U.S.-Muslim Relations with a new perspective

September 11, 2001, is a date that everyone will remember. The pain and anger that resulted from that day was felt by many worldwide, changing the dynamics of the United States-Muslim relationship. This week, everyone watched as Pastor Terry Jones announced plans to burn the Qu'ran as a demonstration against radical Islam, inciting a flash wave of anger amongst Muslims worldwide. This abuse of freedom of speech, driven by a narcissistic leader of a small congregation, sabotaged a day filled with remembrance for victims. Jones acknowledged he did not know the victims of 9/11, had not read the Qu'ran, and then attempted to state that this was a protest of radical Islam. The fact of the matter is by burning and desecrating a religious text used by followers of any faith, it is not targeting the problem-makers, but rather is offensive to all.


The complexity of the Muslim world is something that has baffled the experts at all levels of government, and accomplished virtually nothing when it comes to official policy. The fact of the matter is the organizations linked to the government - whether it be Department of Justice, the Pentagon, or even in the White House - all are questionable.

-The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) was listed as an unindicted co-conspirator in the notorious Holy Land Foundation trial. The reality of the matter is the group has held links to terror-financing operations since 1994. This excerpt from a Fox News report by David Lee Miller with CAIR Legislative Affairs Director Corey Saylor was featured in an assessment on CAIR by the Investigative Project on Terrorism:


Miller: Can you sit here now and in just one sentence tell me - CAIR condemns Hamas and CAIR condemns Hezbollah?

Saylor: I'm telling you in a very clear fashion - CAIR condemns terrorist acts, whoever commits them, wherever they commit them, whenever they commit them.

Miller: That's not the same thing as saying you condemn Hamas and you condemn Hezbollah.

Saylor: Well I recognize that you don't like my answer to the question, but that's the answer to the question.

Miller: It's not no. It's not whether I like or dislike it. I was asking you if you can sit here now and say - CAIR condemns Hamas or Hezbollah. If you don't want to, just say that. If that is a position your group doesn't take, I certainly accept that. I just want to understand what your answer is.

Saylor: The position that my group takes is that we condemn terrorism on a consistent, persistent basis, wherever it happens, whenever it happens.

Video here.


In summary, a blanket rejection of the tactic, but not the groups that use it. Perhaps it's CAIR's links dating back to 1994 to Hamas fundraising that makes it so difficult in denying a group whose founding charter "commits the group to the destruction of Israel." Or the group's claim that suicide bombings are the equivalent to an F-16 fighter jet. Why did this organization ever even receive the time of day with government officials?


Perhaps the biggest embarrassment to attempting to moderate with the Muslim community lies somewhere in Yemen. The new face of terrorism, viewed more dangerous than Osama bin Laden by some, is Anwar al-Awlaki. A former U.S. citizen, Awlaki spoke at the U.S. Capitol just weeks before the 2001 attacks that would evacuate that same building. How did someone with such radical beliefs receive an invitation to become an ambassador for Islam on Capitol Hill?


The list goes on and on of instances where the government outreach to the Muslim community has backfired. The problem is not with Muslims, but rather the sheer incompetence of the government to understand that there is a liability with those that empathize with Hamas and Hezbollah. So long as the groups use terrorism, and the United States designates them as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, there should be a firm stance to disregard any individuals affiliated with any groups on that list. Islam is not an organization, but a religion practiced by a fifth of the world. The strength lies in the outreach and ability to communicate with the people, not an organization.

Are we really even fighting a war anymore?

The War on Terror was designed with the intent to disrupt the leadership network of Al-Qaida that was instrumental behind the attacks of September 11, 2001. Since operations began a month after the attacks in 2001, the U.S. has eliminated numerous senior figures and seasoned veterans of the mujahideen that made up Al-Qaida Central. The leadership of Al-Qaida has been replaced now by a movement made up of collective pockets of fighters distributed among the globe, all seeking to develop the momentum that Al-Qaida once enjoyed.


The attacks in Uganda during the World Cup evidence this, showing that as many experts have suggested for some time that the general trend of terrorist groups turning from promoting their agenda in a local, regional based setting into a global movement applies now to the Shabaab of Somalia. The twin bombings exercised the group's intent to disrupt a global event with violence in order to attract the attention of the viewing public. It is more than likely that the group did not have the resources and capabilities to penetrate the security apparatus surrounding Cape Town.


Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula gained recognition upon the failed bombing of Northwest 253 on Christmas Day last year. The group previously was responsible primarily for Al-Qaida operations inside Saudi Arabia, using the lacking government of President Saleh of Yemen in order to gain refuge across the border. Anwar al-Awlaki was able to use his charm in order to benefit the group by obtaining Westernized recruits who already spoke English and had no tell-tale red flags.


Al-Qaida Central, based in Pakistan, is largely disrupted in my analysis. Figureheads like Osama bin Laden control the public front of the group, but hold no true value outside of their immediate location. The recordings simply are a ploy for credibility in the Muslim world, utilizing the once strong persona that bin Laden and his leaders once held when they were capable of attacks such as the Embassy bombings of 1998. The destruction that Al-Qaida was able to claim actually was linked to bin Laden's direct leadership, rather than a network of regional leaders who operated freely and independent of the group's chain of command.


The U.S. has failed at providing any real results in the War on Terror, opting to ignore developing threats until innocent lives have been claimed. The days of assigning any associates to Al-Qaida on the blacklists has been replaced by simply waiting until those associates have blood on their hands to place them under any sanctions. Intelligence is an invaluable asset in any war, especially a war where the enemy is everywhere. The ability to produce HUMINT in this war has proven extremely difficult. The only able way is to put eyes and ears everywhere, providing assistance in the local tribes that make up the many regions where Al-Qaida's partners find haven.


A grassroots-up strategy would provide the most assistance to those impacted most by an unstable country, especially in Afghanistan and Yemen. The defining problem in most situations is that the local tribes have no reason to believe in a corrupt national government that exists inside the bubble of the capital. By providing aid to those who experience the insurgency violence on a day-to-day basis and standing beside them, there is hope in gaining assets that can prove effective in designing larger counter terrorism strategies. Fighting a war is hard work, but it is something that takes time, patience, and a collective effort in order to achieve success.

What should be noted about the failed Christmas Day attack

As the media continues into day three of its coverage of trying to find somebody to blame for the Christmas Day attempt on the Northwest Airlines flight, this finally has showed us how vulnerable we still are. This is not something that was a result of a new administration over the next twelve months, but rather an exploitation of where our Homeland Security Department is lacking. Had the bomb worked and passengers not been able to bring down Abdulmutallab, this attack would have been successful. Nowhere in that equation did the Homeland Security Department factor into stopping it until the pilot landed the plane.


What should be shown is just like with the Fort Hood shootings, the databases that we have are not serving any real purchase by placing suspect individuals into three categories. Major Hasan was disqualified because he exceeded the age parameters set by DHS that is based from the 20-30 year-old age range of the 9/11 attackers. In the case of Abdulmutallab, he was in one of the databases for possibly having suspect contacts, but apparently was not investigated further.


Ironically the highest threat level category is for those who travel to Pakistan or other countries where they could potentially receive training. In the age of Youtube and self-indoctrination, our classification system with these databases is outdated and as with all of our security measures, created as a reaction and not a preemptive intervention. If these are two individuals who can slip past our intelligence, how many more are out there?


The other factor in this attack is how Abdulmutallab was treated at the airport. With DHS money flowing to big cities like New York and Los Angeles, smaller cities are sometimes the last to receive advanced training and funding in DHS programs. Abdulmutallab had significant aspects of concern that should have been recognized beginning at the ticket counter. Why should a person making a nearly 8,000 mile trip travel with only a carry-on bag? The TSA has trained individuals who are meant to blend in at airports and spot potential red flags, however this did not factor in at all with this international flight.


Furthermore, the suspect's father voluntarily came into the U.S. embassy to warn that his son had been out of touch with him and he feared his connections. Apparently, this information did not get used to further investigate Abdulmutallab's travels and contacts and discern whether he was indeed a threat. Ultimately, his visa status was never questioned and he obviously was allowed to get on a plane to enter the U.S.


What the media is finally beginning to discuss is Abdulmutallab's background. The son of a wealthy Nigerian family, he lived a very privileged life. He had generous aspects to him, reportedly giving money to an orphanage rather than buy souvenirs on a class field trip to London. This incident verifies that economic status does not drive someone to jihad. It is their hatred for a way of life that the West believes in, where there are freedoms afforded in every aspect of life.


The enemy we are fighting should be taken seriously, it is not a group of insane schizophrenics. They are skilled fighters who train similar to militaries and are prepared to fight for their religion. The Islam they fight for they have perverted and it is essential that we understand that Muslims are not violent, but there are those present who seek to do harm. Examining a person with suspect ties is not a crime, and we need to be more aggressive in pushing the DHS out of the era of political correctness. Whenever anyone comes forward with information regarding terrorism, they should be taken seriously just as any local police force would take involving a criminal investigation. Greater standards need to be in place to categorize the individuals inside the present database system and make sure that information is continuously collected to either exonerate or elevate a person's presence on such a list.

A glance at the Christmas Day Northwest Airlines incident

As the media continues to fact check the reports surrounding the Northwest Airlines flight that made an emergency landing after a passenger attempted to detonate an explosive during landing, there are many questions that remain about the incident being described as an "Al-Qaida linked terrorist plot." According to the latest reports, the perpetrator was 23-year old Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian student at the University of London. It has been broadcast that he acquired the device from Yemen. This plot, if indeed Al-Qaida derived, could hold a great deal of information for the future of forecasting terror plots.


It is unknown whether or not the device did indeed originate in Yemen, however if it did and is traced to Al-Qaida it is unlikely the leadership for the group was involved in such a seemingly small-scale, traditional attack. This did not involve any new techniques, and is almost identical to the Richard Reid attempt almost exactly eight years ago. However, the use of a Nigerian by Al-Qaida is interesting as Africans have continued to be involved with recent Al-Qaida operations since 9/11.


The question remains whether or not this was an individual acting independently and is sympathetic to the jihadist movement or indeed took orders from Al-Qaida leadership. If he did and the plot is traced back to Yemen, the next question is was this plot created by Al-Qaida on the Arabian Peninsula, which has traditionally stuck to attacking Saudi Arabia and Yemen but has expressed goals to perpetrate attacks in the West. If this is the group's first attempt to attack the U.S., acting independent of Al-Qaida central in Pakistan, this is a bold move made from what used to be an Al-Qaida franchise.


The question being if that this individual was in a database, is this another failure similar to the Fort Hood disaster of "rating" the threat level of individuals based on limited surveillance? While not on the "no fly list", Abdulmutallab was in a federal database. It would be safe to assume that he was being monitored by British authorities as well. How he got what was reportedly a liquid explosive device aboard despite restrictions after the 2006 transAtlantic bomb plot proves that we are still vulnerable.


In my opinion, this was not the next Al-Qaida attack. After being significantly weakened as the global jihadist movement due to a hiatus after the 9/11 attacks, Al-Qaida needs a powerful attack to reinforce its image in the Muslim world. Why would a terrorist detonate the explosive in the final stages of a nearly 4,000 mile flight? My concern rests in the ability to perpetrate attacks similar to Mumbai, which provided the terrorists with nearly 2 days of nonstop international coverage as they held hostages and killed people indiscriminately. I do believe that not enough safeguards have been taken to prevent such an attack, and that it could be achieved in another major city with relative ease. We are still vulnerable and this attempt proves that one breach is all it takes for another tragedy.