Bombs discovered on U.S. bound cargo planes - AQAP to blame?

With the discovery of several packages containing explosives on U.S. bound cargo planes, counterterror officials internationally are blaming Al-Qaida on the Arabian Peninsula for the attack. Yemeni officials said today that a woman was being held for mailing the packages, and that more arrests were planned. AQAP is determined to strike at the U.S., utilizing its ability to recruit and train Western youths, as seen in the attempted downing of a U.S.-bound passenger plane last Christmas.


Al-Qaida's ability to strike at targets within the U.S. is limited, and its offshoots such as AQAP and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), certainly are restricted in their abilities to execute large-scale terror attacks like 9/11. However, their strength is in the ability to use simple devices and innovative ideas to bypass loopholes, making strikes like the attempted bombing of Northwest 253 last year or this one relatively easy given the ability to find lax areas of airline security.


This week's development of targeting cargo carriers is someone that was simply waiting to happen, however the method of attack and the details suggest that this was a feeble attempt to impact the U.S. economy more than inflict casualties or impact the upcoming elections. The addressed targets of the packages suggests nothing more than to address a package destined for the U.S. carrying contents, specifically finding a traditional Al-Qaida target such as Jewish organizations.


The intended target of the attack lies in recent bin Laden recordings, where he has suggested that Muslims find methods to impact the dollar rather than claim lives. By impacting something like holiday business, the attempted attack most surely would have claimed significant casualties in the everyday trading if cargo carriers were not deemed capable of carrying the hundreds of millions of dollars in business done over the Christmas season. With tighter guidelines on cargo carriers and probably a greater level of screening on employees (specifically temporary workers for the holiday season) there is a great deal of risk allowed in the industry that makes it a vulnerable target for terrorists. This holiday season faces a great deal of threats with methods similar to Mumbai and the assault tactics that could impact shopping at malls nationwide, as well as the airlines that assist in the significant business volume over the holiday season. There is no doubt that law enforcement is taking this development seriously, but that can only go so far before impeding business.

Bin Laden's battle for relevance

This weekend saw the emergence of Al-Qaida figurehead Osama bin Laden and the continued redefinition of Al-Qaida's jihad against the U.S. amid reports of a growing threat faced in Europe. The normally reclusive leader, who releases a handful of audio tapes usually annually, released two tapes this weekend in a ploy to rally support among Muslims. The consecutive releases of tapes raise several concerns, specifically with the recent revelation that OBL was connected to the recent plot thwarted in Europe.


Al-Qaida's resources are dwindling, and the necessities to implement a large-scale plot like 9/11 does not exist. However, the ability to take individuals (such as Faisal Shahzad and Najibullah Zazi) who actively pursue training abroad and then commit to executing terrorist attacks remains the most relevant and difficult threat to counter. The operational war against terrorism is the easiest fight, but the ideological aspect remains difficult to address by law enforcement and intelligence agencies.


Bin Laden's latest tapes went back to an issue released in a recording from January this year - climate change. This issue perhaps gained insertion due to the floods that devastated Pakistan a couple months ago. Bin Laden faulted Arab governments, lending credit to the UN for its response and accusing the regimes around the Middle East for closing their eyes to the suffering. The plight of the Palestinian people is no longer an opportunity for recruitment apparently, as the focus has shifted and the tapes no longer mention the continued stalemate among Israel and the Palestinians. Instead, bin Laden again makes a subtle cry for Muslims to avoid the U.S. economy (perhaps to attempt to gain more finances for his group's diminishing finances) and identifies the significance of each Muslim's role in his battle with the West.


This latest tape continues the normal message of blaming Arab governments for turning a blind eye to the suffering of Muslims. The reality is bin Laden is struggling in the battle to remain relevant. The surge Al-Qaida experienced as the superpower of jihadist groups for 9/11 has diminished, replaced by groups seeking to instigate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict even more. Hizbullah's global dominance and established assets present the clearest threat to Israel and its allies, however the group understands the necessity of maintaining a covert threat. Bin Laden has constantly lost the recruiting power he once held, with his franchises operating in other groups like AQIM, AQAP, and now al-Shabaab. Recruits now are forced to independently travel abroad, in hopes of being considered trustworthy by al-Qaida and Taliban contacts inside Pakistan. Otherwise, they must travel to Yemen or Somalia with the same goal, but the ability to recruit from within the U.S. solely relies on the individual's radical leanings.


OBL now must utilize whatever global development he can, playing the role of the Muslim father trying to protect his suffering Muslim brothers and sisters. However, Sheikh Nasrallah has continuously been considered in poll after poll among Muslim nations that he and his group take up the Muslim fight best. Hizbullah's recruiting has not dwindled, nor its assets, unlike bin Laden. The desperation for OBL to continue to pursue his fight against the U.S. has made the group seem almost uninterested in the Israeli-Palestinian saga that seems almost too easy to utilize if Al-Qaida was interested in establishing legitimacy among Muslims. The dependence on individual's willing to pursue suicide or creating bombs will be the only thing that carries on the jihad when Al-Qaida is no more, with or without bin Laden. It is only when this is adequately addressed by Muslim nations, as well as Western nations, that the struggle to confront terrorism and its roots can begin.