With the killing of ICE Special Agent Jaime Zapata lingering in discussions on the Hill and south of the border, the United States is now put in a difficult place of refining its immigration policies at the border and its relationship with Mexico. Since President Obama took office, immigration has been shoved under the stacks of paper for matters like health care that his administration has chosen to pursue. Under his administration, the intelligence apparatus of this country have continuously been abandoned and brought to shame and the violence that many warn about migrating north from the small towns of Mexico remain as big a threat as ever.
The Department of Homeland Security has failed in its mission of protecting the homeland time and time again, with its abandonment of protecting our borders. Yet again, our country is forced to respond too little and too late to an embarrassing situation where a respected member of law enforcement has fallen victim to senseless violence. The War on Drugs is something that many say is a policy that is failed and not worth the time and effort poured into it according to many legislators, but this incident proves that while they sit in their secured offices around the Capitol, they know nothing about the violence occurring to the south. Our borders remain easily penetrable and have continuously proven porous for the likes of terrorist financiers from groups like Hezbollah to cross through. How long will it take before we see a weapon smuggled?
Iran's proxies such as Hezbollah hold a strong role in Latin America, utilizing the narco trade to finance their groups and transport weapons and materials supporting rebel groups in the region. Venezuela, an influential Iranian ally, has continuously been found guilty of using its Air Force and military commanders as fronts for FARC rebels to ship cocaine out and smuggle Hezbollah associates in. We know Hezbollah has operatives inside this country, mostly for fundraising practices, but how long will it be before one of these networks is responsible for the deaths of Americans? With tensions between Iran and Western allies abroad, the U.S. should be especially vigilant for a display of power and capability in this hemisphere by an Iranian proxy should tensions escalate further.
Coincidentally, in late January, Border Patrol agents found a unique copy of a legendary Iranian book called In Memory of Our Martyrs. The book, an original copy and one of few English versions printed, was found on a well-traveled immigration and drug route. Being that the book was in English and not in Farsi, it may very well be that the person carrying it may not be Iranian, however, it is a very unique find that should be taken seriously. Iran is in a war right now to flex its muscle and remain relevant to the global scene, and it is no coincidence that as the Mideast erupts, Tehran dispatches ships to the Suez canal as they wave farewell to one of the Ayatollah's strongest foes, Hosni Mubarak. As Qaddafi falls to a similar fate in Libya, Iran may very well look to display its capabilities in this hemisphere by striking in Latin America like it did in Argentina in 1994. With its established network in the West, the options for a faux superpower like Tehran suddenly expand to a variety of exposed targets.
9-11-01
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Friday, February 25, 2011
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
The impact of Egyptian Revolution across the Region: A Risk Assessment
As protesters continue to take to the streets of Egypt, the risk of the revolution becoming something it never intended to be increases with the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in what the White House says will "irrevocably change" Egypt. Whether that is for the better or worse nobody seems to care about, the only real issue to Pres. Obama is that Mubarak (a U.S. ally and very, very close partner in the War on Terror) seems to be out. From day one, the strategy for handling this situation has been negligent and dumbfounded at best. We were without hesitation ready to jump on board and push President Mubarak out of power, even before understanding who may succeed his reign.
Now, with the Muslim Brotherhood's involvement in this "democratic revolution", we have handed one of our closest partners in the WoT seemingly over to the jihadists. Egypt is now gone, and there is no turning back. We have betrayed not only the Mubarak administration (if they somehow find a way to hold on), but the military institutions and intelligence service contacts (what else is new, we lost that with Wikigate). The level of embarassment brought on by the Obama administrations' mishandling of sensitive material, partnered with its failure to share vital intelligence that could prove useful to our allies, has weakened the United States and forced our hand into the global arena as a puppet and not a superpower.
Egypt is now the Ground Zero for Muslim revolution, it will be the tipping point for Sharia law being implemented throughout the region, and will most assuredly impact major players throughout the region like Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Should the Brotherhood and ElBaradei gain control of the country, the face of the Middle East and the world will change. I do not believe the revolution has so much to do with democratic reform, rather the ousting of a president who has controlled his country for too long and aligned himself with Western influence. This is a bid by radical Islam to topple a necessary ally for the U.S., and force a transformation of Middle East policy.
The issue occurring inside Egypt boils down to one thing - Salafist Islam. Salafist Islam by definition desires to see Islam brought back to its purest roots. Doctrinally, Salafs adhere to a very strict form of Islam that seeks to integrate and praise Allah through all aspects of life. This is what groups like the Muslim Brotherhood seek to perpetuate in broad government reforms that allow violence to be a tool to implement this. Any person who does not believe is wrong to them, there is no other religion in a Salafist state. On the heels of the New Year's Eve bombing of a church in Alexandria, Christians should be alarmed about their religious freedoms. The Brotherhood will advocate, if not utilize, force to crackdown on resistance and alternate religions.
The biggest risk coming from Egypt involves the potential merger between the Salafs and Iran. If you need to see the future of Egypt, just take a look at Mohamed ElBaradei's track record. This man, the presumed post-Mubarak, Brotherhood-partnered, former IAEA director who allowed Iran's undeclared nuclear program to go unchecked under his tenure. ElBaradei will become the new Assad for the Ayatollah, making Egypt an Iranian proxy surrounding Israel and destroying the peace accord. If the Salaf Brotherhood merges with Tehran, the potential is limitless for state-sponsored terrorism to reach unprecedented levels in the region. Terrorism will cross boundaries, governments, terror groups, and it will all flow into a limitless nexus of violence.
This sharing of resources and personnel can empower groups like Hezbollah - which has an arsenal of weapons at least 5x greater than it had with its 2006 war with Israel - to renew violence against Israel and will bring in weakened countries that sat out previously (like Syria) into the mix. The real question now is where is Saudi Arabia? With King Abdullah in a weakened state after receiving back surgery, who will he lend his support to. The last thing the Sunnis want is an Iranian/Shi'a controlled Caliphate. In 2006, with the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict, the Saudis provided weaponry and military assistance secretly to Israel through back channels, so as to not risk an uprising at home for giving the Zionists any support.
Egypt is too great a risk to sit idly on the sidelines and wait for a new government to emerge while we pander to the very forces we have declared war on. The Brotherhood is a violent, deceptive group that ultimately seeks to bring about the Caliphate. If we fail to act, we will lose the Middle East and empower Iran. The time to bring about democratic reform is now, but to hand over any hope of those to an organization wishing to implement shariah is far from democratic.
Now, with the Muslim Brotherhood's involvement in this "democratic revolution", we have handed one of our closest partners in the WoT seemingly over to the jihadists. Egypt is now gone, and there is no turning back. We have betrayed not only the Mubarak administration (if they somehow find a way to hold on), but the military institutions and intelligence service contacts (what else is new, we lost that with Wikigate). The level of embarassment brought on by the Obama administrations' mishandling of sensitive material, partnered with its failure to share vital intelligence that could prove useful to our allies, has weakened the United States and forced our hand into the global arena as a puppet and not a superpower.
Egypt is now the Ground Zero for Muslim revolution, it will be the tipping point for Sharia law being implemented throughout the region, and will most assuredly impact major players throughout the region like Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Should the Brotherhood and ElBaradei gain control of the country, the face of the Middle East and the world will change. I do not believe the revolution has so much to do with democratic reform, rather the ousting of a president who has controlled his country for too long and aligned himself with Western influence. This is a bid by radical Islam to topple a necessary ally for the U.S., and force a transformation of Middle East policy.
The issue occurring inside Egypt boils down to one thing - Salafist Islam. Salafist Islam by definition desires to see Islam brought back to its purest roots. Doctrinally, Salafs adhere to a very strict form of Islam that seeks to integrate and praise Allah through all aspects of life. This is what groups like the Muslim Brotherhood seek to perpetuate in broad government reforms that allow violence to be a tool to implement this. Any person who does not believe is wrong to them, there is no other religion in a Salafist state. On the heels of the New Year's Eve bombing of a church in Alexandria, Christians should be alarmed about their religious freedoms. The Brotherhood will advocate, if not utilize, force to crackdown on resistance and alternate religions.
The biggest risk coming from Egypt involves the potential merger between the Salafs and Iran. If you need to see the future of Egypt, just take a look at Mohamed ElBaradei's track record. This man, the presumed post-Mubarak, Brotherhood-partnered, former IAEA director who allowed Iran's undeclared nuclear program to go unchecked under his tenure. ElBaradei will become the new Assad for the Ayatollah, making Egypt an Iranian proxy surrounding Israel and destroying the peace accord. If the Salaf Brotherhood merges with Tehran, the potential is limitless for state-sponsored terrorism to reach unprecedented levels in the region. Terrorism will cross boundaries, governments, terror groups, and it will all flow into a limitless nexus of violence.
This sharing of resources and personnel can empower groups like Hezbollah - which has an arsenal of weapons at least 5x greater than it had with its 2006 war with Israel - to renew violence against Israel and will bring in weakened countries that sat out previously (like Syria) into the mix. The real question now is where is Saudi Arabia? With King Abdullah in a weakened state after receiving back surgery, who will he lend his support to. The last thing the Sunnis want is an Iranian/Shi'a controlled Caliphate. In 2006, with the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict, the Saudis provided weaponry and military assistance secretly to Israel through back channels, so as to not risk an uprising at home for giving the Zionists any support.
Egypt is too great a risk to sit idly on the sidelines and wait for a new government to emerge while we pander to the very forces we have declared war on. The Brotherhood is a violent, deceptive group that ultimately seeks to bring about the Caliphate. If we fail to act, we will lose the Middle East and empower Iran. The time to bring about democratic reform is now, but to hand over any hope of those to an organization wishing to implement shariah is far from democratic.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
The complicated chance of peace in Gaza
As the Israeli operation continues in Gaza and President-elect Obama is poised to confront his first major international crisis, the hope to resolve the situation still remains in dismal prospects. The real dilemma to this operation is how to resolve the situation and insure that the circumstances that brought us to this are erased. Without a strong targeting by the international community on the Palestinian Authority and its responsibilities as a government body, the situation will undoubtedly fall into the cycle of repetition as soon as this crisis stops.
This situation is not solely a Palestinian vs. Israeli conflict, but will ultimately lead into the cycle of internal strife amongst Fatah and Hamas. In a computed analysis mapping Hamas' action, the findings were quite interesting. The findings, courtesy of Aaron Mannes and the University of Maryland, conclude:
"Perhaps the most interesting finding was that certain attacks, such as kidnappings and property attacks on Palestinians, tracked with internal Palestinian conflict. Although it occurred after the data was collected, the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit occurred during the Hamas-Fatah civil war. Another round of Hamas-Fatah fighting is likely in the West Bank, so more of these kinds of actions should be expected."
As stated previously in all my prior posts, the ultimate threat is the destabilization of the Palestinian Authority. As predicted, Hamas said on January 9 that the term of Mahmoud Abbas had expired and he "is no longer president." The overall rhetoric from the group seemed to challenge Abbas, coming just short of naming a successor. Once again, this potential for two Palestinian administrations seems to hinder the opportunity for diplomacy and prepares the route for a Hamas-Fatah civil war.
Once again, this potential conflict virtually prohibits the ability of Abbas' Fatah-led security forces to crack down on Hamas. Without the Palestinian government's ability to control portions of its territory, the attacks from Gaza will continue.
This is when the opportunity for an international force, similar to the French-led UNIFIL forces in Lebanon, could provide a potential for peace. As Walid Phares has proposed, the presence of an international force inside Gaza would present a step in the right direction for the people of Gaza. With the network of tunnels inside the territory, the movement of weapons has not diminished under Operation Cast Lead and will only be halted when ground troops are present. The positioning of a UN-force can administer aid and ultimately advocate the lifting of the Gaza blockade, acting as an advocate for the citizens of Gaza caught amidst the conflict.
As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza escalates, the time for action is now. A clear understanding must be made by all international partners, that Hamas can not be recognized as a political organization as it clings to violence. So long as violence comes out there Hamas, there must be a united effort to reduce its terrorist capabilities and to promote democracy amongst the parties involved in Palestinian politics.
Since the Hamas takeover and the placement of the Israeli blockade, the moderates in Gaza have fought to have their voices heard. Many see Hamas responsible for crippling their lives, yet their voices are not in the media. This is the opportunity to hand the stage to the moderates in Middle East affairs, who openly challenge the ideas that breed this senseless cycle of violence, yet we choose to ignore them.
"[Saudi] Prince Bandar bin Sultan said that the Hamas leaders promised, on the day after their election, to persuade their followers within three months that recognition of Israel [was necessary]. Why not surprise Omar Suleiman next month by fulfilling this promise? [The Hamas leaders] are undoubtedly afraid of their followers – [specifically,] of a faction within the Al-Qassam Brigades – and therefore they should be advised by Roosevelt's [saying] about political courage, namely, "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." A political movement must first of all serve the interests of the people. Is it in their best interest to remain without a state, hungry and besieged... just because their leaders have lost their political courage? Hamas is at an important crossroads that requires it to shake itself and reshape itself, in order to meet the challenges faced by its people..."
This situation is not solely a Palestinian vs. Israeli conflict, but will ultimately lead into the cycle of internal strife amongst Fatah and Hamas. In a computed analysis mapping Hamas' action, the findings were quite interesting. The findings, courtesy of Aaron Mannes and the University of Maryland, conclude:
"Perhaps the most interesting finding was that certain attacks, such as kidnappings and property attacks on Palestinians, tracked with internal Palestinian conflict. Although it occurred after the data was collected, the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit occurred during the Hamas-Fatah civil war. Another round of Hamas-Fatah fighting is likely in the West Bank, so more of these kinds of actions should be expected."
As stated previously in all my prior posts, the ultimate threat is the destabilization of the Palestinian Authority. As predicted, Hamas said on January 9 that the term of Mahmoud Abbas had expired and he "is no longer president." The overall rhetoric from the group seemed to challenge Abbas, coming just short of naming a successor. Once again, this potential for two Palestinian administrations seems to hinder the opportunity for diplomacy and prepares the route for a Hamas-Fatah civil war.
Once again, this potential conflict virtually prohibits the ability of Abbas' Fatah-led security forces to crack down on Hamas. Without the Palestinian government's ability to control portions of its territory, the attacks from Gaza will continue.
This is when the opportunity for an international force, similar to the French-led UNIFIL forces in Lebanon, could provide a potential for peace. As Walid Phares has proposed, the presence of an international force inside Gaza would present a step in the right direction for the people of Gaza. With the network of tunnels inside the territory, the movement of weapons has not diminished under Operation Cast Lead and will only be halted when ground troops are present. The positioning of a UN-force can administer aid and ultimately advocate the lifting of the Gaza blockade, acting as an advocate for the citizens of Gaza caught amidst the conflict.
As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza escalates, the time for action is now. A clear understanding must be made by all international partners, that Hamas can not be recognized as a political organization as it clings to violence. So long as violence comes out there Hamas, there must be a united effort to reduce its terrorist capabilities and to promote democracy amongst the parties involved in Palestinian politics.
Since the Hamas takeover and the placement of the Israeli blockade, the moderates in Gaza have fought to have their voices heard. Many see Hamas responsible for crippling their lives, yet their voices are not in the media. This is the opportunity to hand the stage to the moderates in Middle East affairs, who openly challenge the ideas that breed this senseless cycle of violence, yet we choose to ignore them.
"[Saudi] Prince Bandar bin Sultan said that the Hamas leaders promised, on the day after their election, to persuade their followers within three months that recognition of Israel [was necessary]. Why not surprise Omar Suleiman next month by fulfilling this promise? [The Hamas leaders] are undoubtedly afraid of their followers – [specifically,] of a faction within the Al-Qassam Brigades – and therefore they should be advised by Roosevelt's [saying] about political courage, namely, "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." A political movement must first of all serve the interests of the people. Is it in their best interest to remain without a state, hungry and besieged... just because their leaders have lost their political courage? Hamas is at an important crossroads that requires it to shake itself and reshape itself, in order to meet the challenges faced by its people..."
-Arab scholar Lafif Lakhdar
Thursday, January 1, 2009
The 2008 Arab-Israeli conflict
As I posted previously, the potential for the Israeli-Hamas battle to become much bigger is the greatest threat to international relations at this time. This is not just a battle between Palestinians and Israelis, but much bigger. This is an opportunity for Iran to secure its nuclear program and divert attention away from its unregulated nuclear program. However, the nuclear program is not the main concern now but rather the terror links that made this war possible.
The number one concern should be in the coming weeks, when Hamas could make good on its promises to disregard Palestinian Prime Minister Abu Mazen. The already intense Fatah-Hamas divide could turn into bloodshed, with Palestinian factions warring against each other in the middle of a conflict with Israel. The question then turns to who the international community can talk with, Hamas' president or Abu Mazen? If this conflict is a direct result of Hamas, it would make sense to deal with Hamas, but it is important that the terror group is not given legitimacy through any talks.
This threat cripples the ability to resolve the situation. There will only be a loser, and it will be the Palestinian people. What could develop will be a civil war between Palestinian factions while at the same time engaging Israel. If the Fatah-Hamas conflict flares up, the potential for innocent bloodshed will increase drastically and the international community will be faced with the cries to intervene. Countries will be forced to take sides in a battle between terrorist groups masked as political forces, and the outcome will not be a resolution but rather another ceasefire.
As the world watches the crisis unfold in the Middle East, the potential for the worst to come true seems to be everpresent. I hope the Palestinian Authority can hold its power, but that answer could emerge in nearly a week. This crisis is plagued by the many changes occurring on the world stage, most notably President-elect Obama set to swear-in on January 20. Only time will tell where the situation will turn next, but looking at the trend of recent similar situations, this one will get alot worse.
The number one concern should be in the coming weeks, when Hamas could make good on its promises to disregard Palestinian Prime Minister Abu Mazen. The already intense Fatah-Hamas divide could turn into bloodshed, with Palestinian factions warring against each other in the middle of a conflict with Israel. The question then turns to who the international community can talk with, Hamas' president or Abu Mazen? If this conflict is a direct result of Hamas, it would make sense to deal with Hamas, but it is important that the terror group is not given legitimacy through any talks.
This threat cripples the ability to resolve the situation. There will only be a loser, and it will be the Palestinian people. What could develop will be a civil war between Palestinian factions while at the same time engaging Israel. If the Fatah-Hamas conflict flares up, the potential for innocent bloodshed will increase drastically and the international community will be faced with the cries to intervene. Countries will be forced to take sides in a battle between terrorist groups masked as political forces, and the outcome will not be a resolution but rather another ceasefire.
As the world watches the crisis unfold in the Middle East, the potential for the worst to come true seems to be everpresent. I hope the Palestinian Authority can hold its power, but that answer could emerge in nearly a week. This crisis is plagued by the many changes occurring on the world stage, most notably President-elect Obama set to swear-in on January 20. Only time will tell where the situation will turn next, but looking at the trend of recent similar situations, this one will get alot worse.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
A tragic failure of negotiations
Many critics say that the Middle East is a region that will remain at war, plagued by conflicts that can not be resolved. Just as things looked on the rise from the region, the six-month ceasefire with Hamas ended. In an instant, the temporary peace exploded. All the boasting of Israeli ministers on the ceasefire's success disappeared with a fresh volley of rockets.
While many may see this as another example of the Arab-Israeli conflict, this is a much bigger event that has the potential to escalate into a catastrophic crisis. The situation has the potential to sink the region into an intensified permanent state of conflict.
Many experts are beginning to assert that the attacks seem to be fairly well-timed, and with the statement from Hizbullah, that responsibility may ultimately lay inside Tehran. With a fresh U.S. administration set to take control, Israel and Syria having had talks mediated by Turkey (now cancelled due to the Israeli airstrikes), and the Arab world again focused on its hatred for Israel, the only real winner is Iran.
There are two major components to watch for in the coming month as the situation continues.
1) What role will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his party, Fatah, address the threat of Hamas?
It is important to remember that Hamas took power of Gaza from Fatah in June 2007. This separation of forces and animosity between the two sides could ultimately intensify the Fatah-Hamas divide if Fatah attempts to intervene. Abbas' presidency is in question already by Hamas, and any action could destroy the Palestinian leadership.
2) How will the Arab world react to the situation?
Needless to say, the Arab world is already blasting Israel for the action. Any military support to Hamas by the Arab world could instigate another Arab-Israeli conflict, which would ultimately involve Hizbullah. With Hizbullah's arsenal increased several times over, it is likely that even the Israeli military would remain stretched by having to confront multiple threats at the same time. The ultimate test to international affairs will be to keep Arab countries isolated and to keep the crisis between Israel and Hamas.
The situation is assuredly a nightmare one at best. It was a matter of time until this happened. A six-month cease-fire only set up this situation. Hamas increased its weaponry, just like Hizbullah after the 2006 conflict. As soon as the cease-fire was over, whether on its own will or under influence by Iranian leadership, Hamas took its weaponry and used it. Now, amidst all the impending transitions in the U.S. and Israel, it appears there is a crisis that has emerged and will dominate the headlines for sometime.
While many may see this as another example of the Arab-Israeli conflict, this is a much bigger event that has the potential to escalate into a catastrophic crisis. The situation has the potential to sink the region into an intensified permanent state of conflict.
Many experts are beginning to assert that the attacks seem to be fairly well-timed, and with the statement from Hizbullah, that responsibility may ultimately lay inside Tehran. With a fresh U.S. administration set to take control, Israel and Syria having had talks mediated by Turkey (now cancelled due to the Israeli airstrikes), and the Arab world again focused on its hatred for Israel, the only real winner is Iran.
There are two major components to watch for in the coming month as the situation continues.
1) What role will Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his party, Fatah, address the threat of Hamas?
It is important to remember that Hamas took power of Gaza from Fatah in June 2007. This separation of forces and animosity between the two sides could ultimately intensify the Fatah-Hamas divide if Fatah attempts to intervene. Abbas' presidency is in question already by Hamas, and any action could destroy the Palestinian leadership.
2) How will the Arab world react to the situation?
Needless to say, the Arab world is already blasting Israel for the action. Any military support to Hamas by the Arab world could instigate another Arab-Israeli conflict, which would ultimately involve Hizbullah. With Hizbullah's arsenal increased several times over, it is likely that even the Israeli military would remain stretched by having to confront multiple threats at the same time. The ultimate test to international affairs will be to keep Arab countries isolated and to keep the crisis between Israel and Hamas.
The situation is assuredly a nightmare one at best. It was a matter of time until this happened. A six-month cease-fire only set up this situation. Hamas increased its weaponry, just like Hizbullah after the 2006 conflict. As soon as the cease-fire was over, whether on its own will or under influence by Iranian leadership, Hamas took its weaponry and used it. Now, amidst all the impending transitions in the U.S. and Israel, it appears there is a crisis that has emerged and will dominate the headlines for sometime.
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