This situation is not solely a Palestinian vs. Israeli conflict, but will ultimately lead into the cycle of internal strife amongst Fatah and Hamas. In a computed analysis mapping Hamas' action, the findings were quite interesting. The findings, courtesy of Aaron Mannes and the University of Maryland, conclude:
"Perhaps the most interesting finding was that certain attacks, such as kidnappings and property attacks on Palestinians, tracked with internal Palestinian conflict. Although it occurred after the data was collected, the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit occurred during the Hamas-Fatah civil war. Another round of Hamas-Fatah fighting is likely in the West Bank, so more of these kinds of actions should be expected."
As stated previously in all my prior posts, the ultimate threat is the destabilization of the Palestinian Authority. As predicted, Hamas said on January 9 that the term of Mahmoud Abbas had expired and he "is no longer president." The overall rhetoric from the group seemed to challenge Abbas, coming just short of naming a successor. Once again, this potential for two Palestinian administrations seems to hinder the opportunity for diplomacy and prepares the route for a Hamas-Fatah civil war.
Once again, this potential conflict virtually prohibits the ability of Abbas' Fatah-led security forces to crack down on Hamas. Without the Palestinian government's ability to control portions of its territory, the attacks from Gaza will continue.
This is when the opportunity for an international force, similar to the French-led UNIFIL forces in Lebanon, could provide a potential for peace. As Walid Phares has proposed, the presence of an international force inside Gaza would present a step in the right direction for the people of Gaza. With the network of tunnels inside the territory, the movement of weapons has not diminished under Operation Cast Lead and will only be halted when ground troops are present. The positioning of a UN-force can administer aid and ultimately advocate the lifting of the Gaza blockade, acting as an advocate for the citizens of Gaza caught amidst the conflict.
As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza escalates, the time for action is now. A clear understanding must be made by all international partners, that Hamas can not be recognized as a political organization as it clings to violence. So long as violence comes out there Hamas, there must be a united effort to reduce its terrorist capabilities and to promote democracy amongst the parties involved in Palestinian politics.
Since the Hamas takeover and the placement of the Israeli blockade, the moderates in Gaza have fought to have their voices heard. Many see Hamas responsible for crippling their lives, yet their voices are not in the media. This is the opportunity to hand the stage to the moderates in Middle East affairs, who openly challenge the ideas that breed this senseless cycle of violence, yet we choose to ignore them.
"[Saudi] Prince Bandar bin Sultan said that the Hamas leaders promised, on the day after their election, to persuade their followers within three months that recognition of Israel [was necessary]. Why not surprise Omar Suleiman next month by fulfilling this promise? [The Hamas leaders] are undoubtedly afraid of their followers – [specifically,] of a faction within the Al-Qassam Brigades – and therefore they should be advised by Roosevelt's [saying] about political courage, namely, "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." A political movement must first of all serve the interests of the people. Is it in their best interest to remain without a state, hungry and besieged... just because their leaders have lost their political courage? Hamas is at an important crossroads that requires it to shake itself and reshape itself, in order to meet the challenges faced by its people..."
-Arab scholar Lafif Lakhdar
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